The clue to the what lies ahead for Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, following the Karnataka government appealing in the Supreme Court her acquittal in a disproportionate assets case, may lie in a 2001 court case, writes R Ramasubramanian.
The BJP has to endorse chief minister K Palaniswami's candidature for the CM's post for the polls and agree to its other terms -- like non-participation in government -- and if not, should rethink of its 2021 electoral options, the AIADMK indicated at its meet.
'The DMK may get a little more than 50% of the minority vote.' 'The AIADMK always gets over 10% of the minority vote.'
He, however said he will serve people in whatever ways he can without entering electoral politics.
Second-line AIADMK leaders and cadres alike say that by starting the talks first with the BJP and committing the party to an alliance without discussing seat-sharing, the leadership might have commenced the coalition discourse at the wrong end. According to them, even 20 seats for the BJP may be too many, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
This time round, even 'petrol coupons' were reportedly distributed for those attending campaign rallies, especially those addressed by top leaders, cutting across party lines. If this owed to the rising cost of petrol and diesel -- which is a poll issue this time -- there were the customary coupons for 'quarter' (liquor bottle size) and non-vegetarian biryani. Some media reports claimed that some of these 'crowds' attended more than one political rally on the same day in the last week, and at times for rival political parties in adjoining constituencies or districts, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Tamil Nadu has around 30 per cent or more of 'swing voters', and it is this segment that will swing the pre-poll alliance decision, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The twin announcements have virutally cleared the decks for the merger of the two factions.
Farming and debt go together in Tamil Nadu's Ariyalur district. There are those who have learnt to live with it and others like Alagar who could not cope with the loss.
'Most of those involved in these honour killings are the people who belong to the class that feels left out.' 'The high development index in a way is perpetuating conditions that result in social tension.' 'The only solution to the problem is politicise inter-caste marriages.'
The by-elections to 18 assembly constituencies will decide if the ruling AIADMK remains in power or not.
Even as the actor-turned-politician said that it was just 'a courtesy call', speculation about a future alliance between them has been doing the rounds in the national capital, says R Rajagopalan.
For the AIADMK, winning the Srirangam by-election without Jayalalithaa campaigning for it, and having Panneerselvam as chief minister, is saying a lot in its favour. But again, a year and more is a long time in electoral politics in the country, and more so in Tamil Nadu, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Why did Kamal Haasan name the leaders he did?
If the already demoralised Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam cadre, beaten worse by the shocking parliamentary poll debacle in May 2014 thought that the political set-back suffered by rival All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa Jayaram, in the light of a Bangalore court ordering a jail-term for her in September was a boon for their leadership, it's not to be.
If the AIADMK falls short of the 117-mark required to form a government in the 234-member assembly, will it strike a post-poll deal to form Tamil Nadu's first coalition government? N Sathiyamorthy analyses.
As political rivals clamour to retain their pan-Tamil credentials, the BJP may use the 'nationalist' card to even the odds in its favour, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Former Union minister GK Vasan's decision to revolt and float a separate outfit in Tamil Nadu serves as a deadly blow to the Grand Old Party, which is already struggling, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
However, the tilting factor still remains: Can the rivalling 'Modi brand' of 'soft Hindutva' and 'hard-sell nationalism' garner more votes for the NDA in Tamil Nadu, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
The veshti controversy in Tamil Nadu is not about the dress -- but a dress-code, which seems permissible in private homes and offices, but not in private clubs that are open only to well-heeled, and well-paying private members, observes N Sathiya Moorthy
DMK leader MK Stalin is concerned that a no-trust move would force the EPS faction to patch up with not only the OPS group but also the TTV camp and also get the 'Two Leaves' poll symbol unfrozen, which could upset his party's electoral apple cart, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The man who led this journey is 50-year-old Kalanithi Maran, chairman and managing director of the Sun Group.
The BJP calculates that simultaneous polls to Parliament and TN assembly could help it, intent as it is on making the state break from its Dravidian past, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Subramanian Swamy stole the BJP thunder in Tamil Nadu by meeting DMDK's Vijaykanth in Chennai, and his efforts seem to have paid off, at least in the interim, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The AIADMK swept the polls winning 37 of the 39 seats, leaving DMK, its rivals, and the BJP to do a serious rethinking before the assembly elections in 2016, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
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'Why was Yeddyurappa taken back by the BJP ? Because his community is very strong in Karnataka and if he is back, the BJP thinks it will get more seats.' The government should stop all reservations based on caste, Gandhian Salem Velu Gandhi -- who recently asked the Supreme Court to include a new caste in the list of India's castes, for the children of inter-caste marriages -- tells Rediff.com's Shobha Warrier.
'What has he done for the state and the people?' 'The state has witnessed extraordinary problems. Where was he then?' 'Has he spoken about any issues or taken a stand?'
In private, AIADMK spokespersons say that the raid on Chief Secretary P Ramamohana Rao might be aimed at weakening the AIADMK, and demotivating the party from selecting/electing Jayalalithaa's confidante, Sasikala Natarajan, as her successor -- first as party head then possibly in the government, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Contest on their own and get washed out, as happened in the 2016 assembly elections? Or contest in league with one of the Dravidian majors and get submerged under its election symbol? With elections looming, minor political parties in Tamil Nadu are caught in this dilemma, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The DMK still wants to look elsewhere for excuses to its electoral debacle, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
If Muslims face trouble I will be the first person to raise voice for them, says the Tamil superstar.
The ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu had begun seeing Governor Ravi's decisions and actions as a part of the state BJP's non-stop criticism of its government and directed from Delhi, a view strengthened by the governor's decision to return the NEET exemption bill, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
More than 750 constituencies spread across four states and one union territory will go to the polls on Tuesday
'Of equal importance was the AIADMK's precarious assembly membership, what with 11 of its MLAs including deputy chief minister OPS facing court cases for disqualification and by-elections due in another 21. To shore up the party's numbers for anticipated eventuality on the 11-MLAs' front, the AIADMK leadership in general and chief minister EPS in particular, were even more focussed on assembly seats than LS seats, just now,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
With the DMK formalising its alliance with the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League, and the AIADMK not allowing the BJP anywhere near it, if the DMDK too goes with the DMK then the only option left for the BJP is to explore going with the PMK. In that case it has to endorse Dr Ramadoss as its chief minister candidate, says R Ramasubramanian.
The deadlock over finalising alliances has had a deleterious effect on the candidates of every party. The delay in alliance conclusion has also sent out confusing signals to the grass-roots who are unsure who will be their party candidate, or which party within an alliance will be allotted a particular constituency, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The jallikattu issue has revived pan-Tamil political sentiments especially among youths, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Vijayakanth's DMDK may play a key role as Tamil Nadu's political parties scramble for allies to capture the state's 40 Lok Sabha seats.
'Our party cadre does not want her in the party.'
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